[SMM Black current Daily Review] I would have turned my heart to the bright moon, but the bright moon shone on the ditch

Current Weekly Review (20 December)

< 1 > the current market is back this week.

1. The main logic of this week's long-space game includes, but is not limited to.

(1) the first phase of the agreement between China and the United States will fall to the ground.

(2) Yangge twist in the stock market of the motherland.

(3) next year, there will be a big walk to make up for the shortcomings of the infrastructure.

(4) looking back at the growth rate of new real estate construction area.

(5) the inventory accumulation of the five varieties is a fine step.

(6) the northern country is becoming more and more strict in environmental protection and production restriction.

(7) if you look back at the output, you will break your intestines as soon as you know you.

(8) the demand for industrial materials is entangled.

(9) the demand for rebar is over.

(10) Winter Storage pricing agenda Day.

(11) the "Jiao" garden is disturbed by drizzle in the direction of environmental protection and production restriction in Shanxi and Shandong.

(12) Coke in the third round of rising game. No, no.

(13) the environmental protection limits the production and hinders the stone to continue to move forward, the inventory increases, the port decreases.

(14) Stone restocking has been carried out.

(15) Stone wide concussion has a routine: the organization goes back and forth, only because the "landlord" has an explanation.

2. On the spot side. This week forecast, the overall step into a resistant decline phase does not rule out the probability of reverse pumping in low-price and low-inventory areas.

Thread spot overall showed a resistant decline this week: the decline in low-price areas continued to converge, a few areas rebounded slightly, and high-price areas continued to make up for the decline.

Volume: flat convergence.

The price of billet in Tangshan area is 10 to 3350 yuan per ton per week (3440 yuan last week).

Market mentality: pessimistic convergence.

3. Futures. Go up and fall as expected.

RB2005 main contract:

The long faith will not change, the long flag will not fade.

It fluctuated between 3456 and 3558 during the week, closing at 3507 (3523 last week).

HC2005 main contract:

About much fugitive state, light and not self-control.

It fluctuated between 3504 and 3599 during the week, closing at 3526 (3556 last week).

Iron ore l2005 main contract:

Honghu water and waves.

It rallied between 669 and 631 during the week, closing at 635 (up from 653.5 last week).

In spite of the wind and waves, it is better than walking around.

It fluctuated between 1814.5 and 1893 during the week, closing at 1872 per week (1848 last week).

Coking coal JM2005 main contract:

Thousands of years of iron trees unexpectedly blossom, withered wood every spring.

It fluctuated between 1161 and 1194.5 during the week, closing at 1184 per week (1163.5 last week).

< 2 > current forecast for next week.

1. Spot aspect: the overall step into the stable stage, the low price area into the metastable state, the high price area makes up the decline to continue.

2. Futures: the further intensification of shocks is a highly probable event.

RB2005 main contract:

Between 3620 and 3380 during the week.

HC2005 main contract:

Between 3650 and 3380 during the week.

Iron ore l2005 main contract:

Between 690 and 620 during the week.

The main contract of J2005:

Between 1920 and 1800 during the week.

Coking coal JM2001 contract:

Between 1230 and 1140 during the week.

< 3 > current operation suggestions.

1. Spot: high price area to reduce inventory is still waiting for us! Low price, low inventory area smooth operation, in case of a big brake can be appropriate to make up for the inventory Bo rebound.

2. Futures: on the whole, it is the best policy to take a break from the market alone. Activists can intervene in the right amount of high space.

RB2005 main force contract: mostly single high choice machine to stop the profit and leave the field, waiting for the return to intervene again; short rhythm along the value of the appropriate amount of empty single intervention (effectively break through 3650 stop loss), stop profit stop loss in time.

HC2005 main contract: mostly single high opportunity stop profit leave, wait for return to intervene again; short rhythm along the value of empty single appropriate intervention (effectively break through 3680 stop loss), stop profit stop loss in time.

Iron ore L2005 main contract: more than only after leaving the market, static return and then intervene; empty single 670 near a small number of test empty, effectively break through the 690 stop loss.

Demon coke J2005 main contract: more than single high-choice aircraft to leave the field; empty single 1920 near the test empty, effectively break through the 1940 stop.

Coking coal JM2001 main contract: short rhythm range in the main operation, timely stop profit stop loss.

< IV > Heart language and information.

1. Iron ore stocks at 35 ports were 116.91 million tons as of December 20, up 3.58 million tons from 113.33 million tons last week and down 10.68 million tons from the same period last year, SMM reported. The volume of dredging fell sharply by 483000 tons to 2.46 million tons on Sunday compared with the previous month. The ports of Jingtang and Caofeidian have been closed from December 13 to 16, and the average daily opening of the two ports has dropped by 428000 tons compared with the previous month, resulting in a sharp drop in the overall daily average of port opening this week. At the same time, the inventory of the two ports in Tangshan increased significantly month-on-month. Recently, the arrival increment of iron ore in East China and some ports in the Yangtze River has little change compared with the previous month, and the inventory has increased slightly. With the lifting of the port closure in Tangshan, steel mills may continue to replenish their warehouses; superimposed on the expected reduction in the arrival of iron ore next week, port stocks may be expected to decline month-on-month.

2. Since 00:00 on December 21, the ex-factory price of metallurgical coke in Zibo, Weifang, Binzhou, Texas, Linyi, Liaocheng, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Taian and other coke production enterprises in Shandong Province has increased by 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original price.

3. The third round of coke lifting surface continues to expand. Shandong area has landed today, the port inventory returned to 4 million tons below. The third round raised the probability of landing.

4. Iron ore inventories have soared this week and port closures have fallen sharply.

The volume of dredging has dropped, only because of environmental protection, limited production, thunderstorms and four days of closure. Pressing the fill key and reducing the amount of arrival in Hong Kong next week is a highly probable event, and there is no need for red rain to wash the cheeks!

5. The end of the material.

Do not be affectionate in high-priced areas, to inventory is still no time to wait!

Do not abuse yourself in the low price area, the price falls to a certain extent, after that, it will be a disaster!

< 5 > trend analysis remains unchanged: see the multi-month review of "joys and sorrows" (29 November).

If you want to know the details of the market in the later period, consult Lu Qingping, Iron and Steel Department 021-51595781

(disclaimer: this article is exclusively produced and published by the author under the exclusive authorization of SMM Iron and Steel, and may not be reproduced without authorization)